Kina - HANDELSBALANS

In 2020, a slowdown in both the US and China economy is expected as the so-called trade war enters third year. Although the two countries are likely to sign the “phase one” trade deal early January, investors remain cautious as many see it more like a truce, unable to solve main trade issues. Also, with the US presidential election next year, uncertainty and cautiousness should head into 2020 as well.

In 2020, a slowdown in both the US and China economy is expected as the so-called trade war enters third year. Although the two countries are likely to sign the “phase one” trade deal early January, investors remain cautious as many see it more like a truce, unable to solve main trade issues. The Chinese economy is in the worst shape as the growth has been slowing down since the first round of tariffs was imposed by the US in February 2018. The US economy is still in the very good shape but signs of downshifting are becoming more evident as uncertainty spreads to manufacturers, exporters and companies in general. Also, with the US presidential election next year, uncertainty and cautiousness should head into 2020 as well.

China's trade surplus narrowed to USD 38.73 billion in November 2019 from USD 41.86 billion in the same month a year earlier and below market expectations of USD 46.30 billion. This was the smallest trade surplus since August, as exports unexpectedly declined, while imports surprised forecasts by rising for the first time in seven months. China's trade surplus with the US decreased to USD 24.60 billion in November from USD 26.45 billion in October. The January-November trade surplus widened to USD 377.6 billion from USD 294.1 billion in the same period last year. The trade surplus with the US was recorded at USD 272.5 billion, with exports dropping 12.5 percent and imports slipping 23.3 percent.

China's trade surplus widened to USD 42.81 billion in October of 2019 from USD 32.97 billion in the same month a year earlier and above market expectations of a surplus of USD 40.83 billion. This was the largest trade surplus since July, as exports declined 0.9 percent year-on-year to USD 212.93 billion, while imports dropped at a faster 6.4 percent to USD 170.12 billion.

China's trade surplus widened to USD 39.65 billion in September 2019 from USD 30.26 billion in the same month a year earlier and compared to market expectations of a USD 33.3 billion surplus. Exports declined 3.2 percent over a year earlier while imports dropped at a faster 8.5 percent. Meantime, China's trade surplus with the US narrowed to USD 25.88 billion in September from USD 26.96 billion in August. In the first nine months of the year, the trade surplus with the US was recorded at USD 221.33 billion. Considering the January-September period, the trade surplus increased to USD 298.6 billion from USD 219.2 billion in the corresponding period of the prior year.

China's trade surplus widened to USD 34.83 billion in August 2019 from USD 26.30 billion in the same month a year earlier and compared to market expectations of a USD 43.0 billion surplus. Exports declined unexpectedly by 1 percent to USD 214.80 billion, while imports fell at a faster 5.6 percent to USD 179.97 billion. China's trade surplus with the US narrowed to USD 26.95 billion in August from USD 27.97 billion in July. In January-August, the trade surplus widened to USD 259.27 billion from USD 189.05 billion in the corresponding period the prior year. In yuan-denominated terms, China's trade surplus came in at CNY 2.40 billion in August, as exports grew 2.6 percent and imports dropped 2.6 percent.